ZOGBY:: Iowa Caucus Signals Fractured Party – Forbes
By MB Snow at January 6, 2012 | 12:49 am | Print
Last night’s three-way split of the Iowa Republican caucus vote among Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul was much less a measure of the three men, and much more a realization of the schisms among conservative voters that no current candidate may be able to bridge.
On the surface, the Iowa outcome is not unusual. The natural function of the Iowa and New Hampshire races is to eliminate weaker candidates and set the field for the more delegate rich states that will decide the nominee. Michele Bachmann has dropped out, and so may Rick Perry. Jon Huntsman has his last stand in New Hampshire. Newt Gingrich will go on with a chip on his shoulder, the belief he is the man who can appeal to all Republicans and the ability to rough up Romney and Paul.
Santorum is of course the surprise out of Iowa. No one but Santorum and his inner circle expected him to come within eight votes of beating Romney. He did so because he, not Bachmann or Perry, took the biggest share of the sizeable evangelical pro-life and traditional marriage wing of his party. From here on, Santorum will be this wing’s champion.
Romney finished with nearly the identical number of votes he received four years ago, when he lost to Mike Huckabee. That outcome made Romney unsure about even showing up this time in Iowa. But seeing a real chance to win, he jumped in with both feet, expecting that even placing near the top would be seen as a victory. It might have been just that had his chief rivals not been the unlikely duo of Santorum and Paul, whom no one has considered realistic nominees.
Romney has the money (both in his real campaign and the shadow groups who brought down Gingrich in Iowa) and a growing list of endorsements, including John McCain’s. The business and party establishments tout Romney as the only one who can beat Barack Obama, and they want the rest of the Republicans to eat their spinach and go along. Based on Iowa and all the national polling, the GOP base is still searching the menu for someone who better suits their tastes.
via Iowa Caucus Signals Fractured Party – Forbes.