BERNANKE Emerges as an Issue on the Campaign Train – New York Sun
By MB Snow at February 11, 2012 | 12:25 am | Print
Out on the campaign trail, Fed head Ben Bernanke is an unpopular guy. Governor Romney and Speaker Gingrich have both said they would replace Mr. Bernanke, not reappoint him. Congressman Ron Paul would swap the whole Federal Reserve monetary system for a gold-linked dollar, making the yellow metal legal tender. It was Governor Perry of Texas, before he dropped out of the race, who said more quantitative easing by the Fed would be “almost treasonous.”
Republicans in Washington are equally unimpressed by Bernanke. Congressman Paul Ryan recently criticized the Fed for bankrolling our huge budget deficits and thereby accommodating a profligate fiscal policy. Former Federal Reserve Board governor Kevin Warsh, a Bernanke intimate before he left last April, just leveled criticism at the Fed’s extensive zero-interest-rate policy and its “operation twist.” Mr. Warsh, by the way, was an economic official in the Bush White House.
Finally, a former Bush Treasury undersecretary, John Taylor, author of the Taylor rule that is monitored inside the Fed, recently told me that the central bank target rate should be 2%, not zero.
There are two key takeaways from this onslaught of Fed criticism: First, the critics worry that the ultra-easy money pumped out by the Bernanke Fed will in the future create periodic inflationary bubbles (housing and energy), such as we had in the 2000s, which contributed mightily to the ultimate financial meltdown.
Second, and related to the inflation worry, the Republican party is gradually becoming the King Dollar party. After watching the greenback collapse almost 40% during the Bush years, Republican leaders are moving back to a Reaganesque dollar approach whereby a great nation with the world’s leading economy should have a strong and reliable currency.
The dollar soared and gold plunged during Ronald Reagan’s first term, just as it did during Bill Clinton’s second term. In both these eras, stocks rallied mightily and the economy grew rapidly. Supply-siders note that a good-as-gold dollar and low marginal tax rates were the ultimate prosperity tonics during these two periods.
But today we’re witnessing the opposite of supply-side prosperity. The current economic malaise seems borne of a weak-dollar/high-gold monetary policy coupled with a huge tax-hike threat looming in 2013.
To be fair, Bernanke has his supporters. They’re mostly from the canyons of Wall Street where money-market economists are loathe to criticize him. Then there’s NYU professor Mark Gertler, who has coauthored research with Bernanke. A recent Bloomberg story cites Gertler as saying, “Criticism about the Fed being inflationary is not fact-based. In terms of an inflation record, the facts are the Fed has been as close to impeccable as you can possibly get.”
Gertler notes that during Bernanke’s six-year tenure the consumer price index rose an average of 2.4%, lower than the 3.1% average for Alan Greenspan and the 6.3% for Paul Volcker. That’s unfair to Volcker, who inherited 15% inflation and by targeting gold and the money supply brought it down to 3%.
The trouble is, after three years of zero interest rates (with more coming) and an outsized Fed balance sheet of more than $2 trillion, there’s still an inflation threat out there, despite the subpar economy. Mr. Bernanke has been a massive pump primer long after the financial emergency has passed.
Over the past year the CPI has increased 3%. Energy prices have grown 6.6%, while food is up 4.7%. This is a big pinch on consumer pocket books and a drag on the economy. Inflation expectations are steadily running at 2.5 to 3%.
In Milton Friedman terms of too much money chasing too few goods, the 10% M2 increase of the past year is way above the 2.5% economy. In classical dollar-value terms, the $1,700 gold price is an ominous portent for future inflation. The tradable DXY dollar index is hovering under 80, which is massively below its 2001 peak of 120.
via Bernanke Emerges as an Issue on the Campaign Train – The New York Sun.
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